In the years over which data have been collected for the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™, itsmonthly rise in each of the six months from September through February has averaged between 0.1% and 0.2%. In October of this year the rise was 0.2%, ending a run of three months in which the monthly gain exceeded the historical average for that month. Prices were up from the month before in only five of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed, the narrowest dispersion of the year to date. Without the 1.2% jump of Vancouver prices, the composite index would have been flat from the month before. The October gain exceeded the countrywide average in Hamilton (0.9%), Calgary (0.5%) and Montreal (0.3%). In Quebec City it matched the average. Prices were down from the month before in Victoria and Toronto (−0.2%), in Edmonton, Winnipeg and Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.4%) and in Halifax (−0.8%). It was the 11th month in a row in which the composite index did not fall. Only two markets, Calgary and Edmonton, have come close to that countrywide performance, with sequences of 10 months. Edmonton’s run was interrupted in October.
The 12-month rise of the composite index in October was 5.4%, the same as in September. That countrywide average was exceeded in Calgary (9.1%), Toronto (7.4%), Hamilton (7.3%) and Vancouver (6.5%). Unsurprisingly, the resale market in these four urban areas is balanced or even tight. The 12-month rise was more moderate in Edmonton (4.9%) and, especially, Winnipeg (2.5%), Montreal (1.1%), Quebec City (1.0%), Halifax (0.4%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.2%). Prices in Victoria were down 0.1% from a year earlier. The composite index has been up from a year earlier for 61 months now, since October 2009. The only one of the 11 markets to match that run is Toronto, though Hamilton comes close with 59 months.
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