Home Prices up 0.4% in January

February 12, 2014

In January the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was up 0.4% from December. This advance took the composite index to an all-time high, though individual indexes reached all-time highs for only two of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed, Toronto and Vancouver. Since in January 2013 the index was down from the month before, the increase of January 2014 resulted in an acceleration of 12 month home price inflation to 4.5% in January from 3.8% in December. The gain from a year earlier exceeded the cross-country average in four of the 11 markets: Vancouver (7.5%), Calgary (7.1%), Toronto (5.8%) and Hamilton (5.1%). It was close to the average in Edmonton (4.4%) and Winnipeg (3.9%). It was minimal in Montreal (0.8%) and Quebec City (0.6%). Prices were down from a year earlier in Victoria (−5.7%), Halifax (−2.9%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.6%). The 12-month decline was a first for Ottawa-Gatineau, the 11th straight for Victoria and the fourth in six months for Halifax.

Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

The 0.4% advance of the composite index from December to January was the largest monthly rise in five months. Over this period, it is also the first time that a majority of the markets surveyed showed prices up from the month before. Vancouver (+1.1%), Toronto (+0.5%) and Quebec City (+0.5%) led the composite index. Calgary equalled it. Hamilton prices were up 0.3%, Winnipeg and Montreal prices 0.2%. Edmonton was flat on the month. Prices fell 0.3% in Victoria, 1.1% in Ottawa-Gatineau and 1.7% in Halifax. The January rises in Montreal and Quebec City interrupted runs of five consecutive monthly declines. For Ottawa-Gatineau it was the fifth straight monthly decline, for Victoria the fourth and for Halifax the second. For Vancouver it was a ninth straight monthly rise, for the composite index the 10th in 11 months.

Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™

The historical data of the Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca.

 

Metropolitan areaIndex level
January
% change m/m% change y/y
Calgary172.420.4 %7.1 %
Edmonton172.330.0 %4.4 %
Halifax138.06-1.7 %-2.9 %
Hamilton146.630.3 %5.1 %
Montreal148.980.2 %0.8 %
Ottawa140.42-1.1 %-0.6 %
Quebec176.520.5 %0.6 %
Toronto154.800.5 %5.8 %
Vancouver176.941.1 %7.5 %
Victoria133.48-0.3 %-5.7 %
Winnipeg193.960.2 %3.9 %
National Composite 6159.45 0.5 %5.0 %
National Composite 11159.93 0.4 %4.5 %

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion. 

All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.

By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Senior Economist
Economy & Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada