In May the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was up 0.8% from the previous month. This increase, though substantial in itself, was the fifth smallest for May in the 16 years covered by the index. The countrywide composite index rose to an all-time high, but only three of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed did the same. Prices were up from the previous month in seven markets and by more than the national average in five. The 3.1% monthly gain in Halifax was the largest in the history of that market. Prices rose 2.0% in Hamilton, 1.6% in Quebec City, 1.3% in Toronto, 1.1% in Calgary, 0.6% in Edmonton and 0.5% in Montreal. Calgary's advance was the fourth in a row exceeding 1%, taking prices to a new high. New records were also reached in Hamilton and Toronto. Prices were unchanged from the month before in Ottawa-Gatineau and Vancouver. The reading for Vancouver ended 12 consecutive months of rising prices. Prices were down from the previous month in Victoria (−0.1%) and Winnipeg (−0.3%).
Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™
Since in May 2013 the monthly rise of the composite index was 1.1%, this May's 0.8% rise meant that 12 month home price inflation decelerated 0.3 percentage points to 4.6%, where it was in March. For the third month in a row, prices were down from a year earlier in all four markets east of Toronto: Quebec City (−1.6%), Ottawa-Gatineau (−1.4%), Montreal (−1.2%) and Halifax (−0.4%). In Victoria prices were flat from a year earlier. The 12-month rise trailed the countrywide average in Winnipeg (+1.0%) and Edmonton (+2.6%) and led it in Hamilton (+5.9%), Toronto (+6.0%), Vancouver (+8.2%) and Calgary (+8.7%). The softness of prices east of Toronto is consistent with the excess supply prevailing in the resale markets of these metropolitan areas. That being said, market conditions are generally balanced elsewhere, and are even tight in Calgary.
Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™
The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca.
|Metropolitan area||Index level|
|% change m/m||% change y/y|
|Calgary||181.29||1.1 %||8.7 %|
|Edmonton||175.85||0.6 %||2.6 %|
|Halifax||142.07||3.1 %||-0.4 %|
|Hamilton||148.80||2.0 %||5.9 %|
|Montreal||149.16||0.5 %||-1.2 %|
|Ottawa||139.50||0.0 %||-1.4 %|
|Quebec||175.54||1.6 %||-1.6 %|
|Toronto||157.16||1.3 %||6.0 %|
|Vancouver||180.47||0.0 %||8.2 %|
|Victoria||133.79||-0.1 %||0.0 %|
|Winnipeg||195.51||-0.3 %||1.0 %|
|National Composite 6||162.16||0.8 %||5.1 %|
|National Composite 11||162.50||0.8 %||4.6 %|
The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca
The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion.
All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.
Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada
Teranet - National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for their special collaboration on this report.