In July the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was up 1.1% from the previous month. It was the first time in five months that the monthly change in the composite index exceeded the historical average for the month in question. Prices were up on the month in 10 of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed. The gain exceeded the countrywide average in five markets: Victoria (+3.5%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+2.0%), Toronto (+1.8%) and Quebec City and Hamilton (+1.6%). It lagged the average in Edmonton (+1.0%), Halifax (+0.7%), Calgary (+0.6%), Montreal (+0.5%) and Vancouver (+0.2%). For a third consecutive month, Winnipeg prices were down from the previous month (−0.1%). July was the eighth month in a row in which the composite index did not fall. This countrywide performance was equalled in only one market, Edmonton, though Calgary came close with a seventh straight monthly increase.
Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™
Since in July 2013 the monthly rise of the composite index was 0.7%, this July's rise of 1.1% meant that 12 month home price inflation accelerated 0.5 percentage points to 4.9%. That countrywide average was greatly exceeded in Calgary (+8.2%), Hamilton (+7.1%), Toronto (+6.6%) and Vancouver (+6.1%). Unsurprisingly, the resale market in these four urban areas is balanced or even tight. The 12-month increase was more moderate in Edmonton (+3.7%), Victoria (2.5%) and Montreal (1.5%). Though Winnipeg prices were down 0.1% from a year earlier, they remain almost double those of nine years ago - the biggest gain of any of the 11 markets over that period. On the other hand, 12-month deflation persisted in Quebec City and Halifax (−1.2%) and in Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.1%). The softness of prices in markets east of Toronto over the last 12 months is consistent with the oversupply prevailing in the resale markets of these metropolitan areas.
Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™
The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca.
|Metropolitan area||Index level|
|% change m/m||% change y/y|
|Calgary||183.99||0.6 %||8.2 %|
|Edmonton||179.59||1.0 %||3.7 %|
|Halifax||141.36||0.7 %||-1.2 %|
|Hamilton||155.87||1.6 %||7.1 %|
|Montreal||154.07||0.5 %||1.5 %|
|Ottawa||143.03||2.0 %||-0.1 %|
|Quebec||177.63||1.6 %||-1.2 %|
|Toronto||162.35||1.8 %||6.6 %|
|Vancouver||179.16||0.2 %||6.1 %|
|Victoria||140.90||3.5 %||2.5 %|
|Winnipeg||194.21||-0.1 %||-0.1 %|
|National Composite 6||165.33||1.1 %||5.3 %|
|National Composite 11||165.84||1.1 %||4.9 %|
The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca
The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion.
All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.
Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada
Teranet - National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for their special collaboration on this report.