Home Prices Flat In September

October 15, 2013

In September the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was flat from the month before. Since prices were down from the month before in September 2012, 12 month home price inflation nevertheless accelerated, to 2.7% from 2.3%. For the first time since June 2012, the price rise from a year earlier exceed the cross-country average in only four of the 11 metropolitan markets covered in the index: Hamilton (5.9%), Calgary (5.6%), Toronto (3.7%) and Quebec City (3.3%). It was equal to the average in Edmonton (2.7%) and lagged it in Winnipeg (2.0%), Vancouver (1.7%), Ottawa-Gatineau (1.0%) and Montreal (0.8%). Prices were down from a year earlier for a seventh consecutive month in Victoria (−0.5%) and for a second consecutive month in Halifax (−1.8%). For Vancouver it was the first time in 14 months that prices were up from a year earlier.

Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

Since the average September gain in 15 years of index data collection has been 0.2%, this year's flatness therefore suggests a market cooler than usual. Moreover, prices were up from the month before in only three of the 11 markets: Hamilton and Victoria (0.7%) and Vancouver (0.5%). It was only the third time in 15 years that prices were up on the month in no more than three markets. Prices were flat in Toronto and Ottawa-Gatineau and down from the month before in Edmonton and Halifax (−0.6%), Montreal (−0.5%), Quebec City and Calgary (−0.4%) and Winnipeg (−0.1%). For Halifax and Winnipeg it was the third consecutive monthly decline. For Montreal, Quebec City and Edmonton it was the second.

Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™

 

The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca.

 

 

Metropolitan areaIndex level
September
% change m/m% change y/y
Calgary171.23-0.4 %5.6 %
Edmonton171.91-0.6 %2.7 %
Halifax139.85-0.6 %-1.8 %
Hamilton147.810.7 %5.9 %
Montreal150.69-0.5 %0.8 %
Ottawa143.410.0 %1.0 %
Quebec177.41-0.4 %3.3 %
Toronto154.070.0 %3.7 %
Vancouver171.110.5 %1.7 %
Victoria139.510.7 %-0.5 %
Winnipeg193.83-0.1 %2.0 %
National Composite 6158.19 0.0 %2.7 %
National Composite 11159.12 0.0 %2.7 %

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion. 

All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.

By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Senior Economist
Economy & Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada

Teranet - National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for their special collaboration on this report. 

1 Value of Dwelling for the Owner-occupied Non-farm, Non-reserve Private Dwellings of Canada.