House Prices Up 0.9% In June

July 14, 2014

In June the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was up 0.9% from the previous month. This increase, though substantial in itself, was the second smallest for June in the last 10 years. In every June of the previous five years (2009 through 2013), the index rose at least 1%. Last June, prices were up from the previous month in seven markets out of 11. The monthly gains for Hamilton (3.1%) and Montreal (2.8%) were records for those cities. Prices were up 1.8% in Victoria, 1.4% in Toronto, 1.1% in Edmonton, 0.9% in Calgary and 0.5% in Ottawa-Gatineau. Prices were down from the previous month in Quebec City (−0.4%), Winnipeg (−0.6%), Vancouver (−1.0%) and Halifax (−1.2%).

Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

Since in June 2013 the monthly rise of the composite index was 1.0%, this June's rise of 0.9% meant that 12 month home price inflation decelerated 0.2 percentage points to 4.4%, the lowest in six months. That countrywide average was greatly exceeded in Calgary (8.1%), in Hamilton (7.3%) and in Toronto and Vancouver (6.1%). Unsurprisingly, the resale market in these four urban areas is balanced or even tight. The 12-month increase was more moderate in Edmonton (3.5%), Victoria (1.6%) and Montreal (1.0%). Though Winnipeg prices were down 0.4% from a year earlier, prices in that market remain almost double those of nine years ago - the biggest gain of any of the 11 markets over that period. On the other hand, the 12-month deflation recorded for Ottawa-Gatineau (−1.7%), Quebec City (−2.4%) and Halifax (−2.5%) is surely related to the oversupply prevailing in the main resale markets east of Toronto.

Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™

 The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca.

 

Metropolitan areaIndex level
June
% change m/m% change y/y
Calgary182.890.9 %8.1 %
Edmonton177.821.1 %3.5 %
Halifax140.36-1.2 %-2.5 %
Hamilton153.393.1 %7.3 %
Montreal153.272.8 %1.0 %
Ottawa140.220.5 %-1.7 %
Quebec174.90-0.4 %-2.4 %
Toronto159.431.4 %6.1 %
Vancouver178.75-1.0 %6.1 %
Victoria136.171.8 %1.6 %
Winnipeg194.42-0.6 %-0.4 %
National Composite 6163.57 0.9 %4.8 %
National Composite 11163.98 0.9 %4.4 %

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion. 

All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.

By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Senior Economist
Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada

Teranet - National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for their special collaboration on this report. 

1 Value of Dwelling for the Owner-occupied Non-farm, Non-reserve Private Dwellings of Canada.