January Home Prices: A Fifth Consecutive Monthly Decline

February 20, 2013

In January the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was up 2.7% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month gain since November 2009. By way of comparison, the U.S. Case-Shiller home price index for 20 urban regions for November (the latest available reading) was up 5.5% from a year earlier. For the Canadian index, January was the 14th straight month of deceleration in 12-month inflation. In six of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed for the index, the 12-month rise exceeded the cross-country average in January: Halifax (6.6%), Quebec City (6.0%), Hamilton (5.9%), Toronto (5.3%), Calgary (4.3%) and Winnipeg (3.4%). Ottawa-Gatineau matched the average (2.7%). Lagging it were Montreal (2.6%), Edmonton (2.0%) and Victoria (1.1%). For Victoria it was the first 12-month gain in 13 months. Prices in Vancouver were down 2.5% from a year earlier, for a sixth month of 12-month deflation.

The report can be accessed at www.housepriceindex.ca

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion.